Let’s get straight to the point. If we exit without a deal it is highly likely that farming is going to feel the effect more than most. The table opposite speaks for itself. More than 90% of UK produced crops go to the EU. It is true that imports from the EU are broadly in balance, implying that the loss of the UK market is as serious for the 27 member states as it is for us, but, simplistically, that ignores the fact that each remaining member has only to absorb an extra 55,000 tonnes compared for us to potentially fi nd a new home for circa 1.5 million tonnes of grain.
If it does come to this then a market will be found but is likely to result in lower prices to the UK farmer because of tariffs, greater transport costs, reciprocal trade agreements on other commodities, and so on. Add to this the withdrawal of BPS by 2027 then it is not difficult to see why some commentators have already started nailing down the coffi n lid on UK farming while it is still breathing!
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Article by Matthew Berryman Open PDF